“The current situation makes it extremely difficult to project the future of the economy. “
In addition, we noted how there are some in the business community who believe we may instead be headed for a U-shaped recovery, where the return to previous levels of economic success won’t occur until the middle of next year. Yesterday, Reuters released a poll of U.S. and European economists which revealed that most surveyed are now leaning more toward a U-shaped recovery.
Here are the results of that poll:
Why the disparity in thinking among different groups of economic experts?
The current situation makes it extremely difficult to project the future of the economy. Analysts normally look at economic data and compare it to previous slowdowns to create their projections. This situation, however, is anything but normal.
Today, analysts must incorporate data from three different sciences into their recovery equation:
1. Business Science – How has the economy rebounded from similar slowdowns in the past?
2. Health Science – When will COVID-19 be under control? Will there be another flareup of the virus this fall?
3. Social Science – After businesses are fully operational, how long will it take American consumers to return to normal consumption patterns? (Ex: going to the movies, attending a sporting event, or flying).
The challenge of accurately combining the three sciences into a single projection has created uncertainty, and it has led to a wide range of opinions on the timing of the recovery.
Bottom Line
Right now, the vast majority of economists and analysts believe a full recovery will take anywhere from 6-18 months. No one truly knows the exact timetable, but it will be coming.
To view original article, visit Keeping Current Matters.
Don’t Tackle Selling Your Home on Your Own – an Agent Can Help
A real estate professional can save you TIME and MONEY by managing every step of the process for you!
Early October is the Sweet Spot for Buyers
While home prices are still appreciating overall, you may see some homes with price adjustments from eager sellers this October.
If You’re a Buyer, Is Offering Asking Price Enough?
If you’ve found your dream home, you need to be realistic about today’s housing market and how that impacts the offer you’ll make.
Two Reasons Why Waiting a Year To Buy Could Cost You
If you are hoping that waiting a year might mean better market conditions to purchase a home, you may want to think again.
Is a 20% Down Payment Really Necessary To Purchase a Home?
If you’re a prospective homebuyer, it’s important to know you don’t have to put the full 20% down
Is It Time To Move on to a New Home?
As the past year has shown, our needs can change rapidly. That means the longer you’ve been in your home, the more likely it is your needs have evolved.