"No one knows for sure when the next recession will occur. What is known, however, is that the upcoming economic slowdown will not be caused by a housing market crash, as was the case in 2008."
No one knows for sure when the next recession will occur. What is known, however, is that the upcoming economic slowdown will not be caused by a housing market crash, as was the case in 2008. There are those who disagree and are comparing today’s real estate market to the market in 2005-2006, which preceded the crash. In many ways, however, the market is very different now. Here are three suppositions being put forward by some, and why they don’t hold up.
SUPPOSITION #1
A critical warning sign last time was the surging gap between the growth in home prices and household income. Today, home values have also outpaced wage gains. As in 2006, a lack of affordability will kill the market.
Counterpoint
The “gap” between wages and home price growth has existed since 2012. If that is a sign of a recession, why didn’t we have one sometime in the last seven years? Also, a buyer’s purchasing power is MUCH GREATER today than it was thirteen years ago. The equation to determine affordability has three elements: home prices, wages, AND MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES. Today, the mortgage rate is about 3.5% versus 6.41% in 2006.
SUPPOSITION #2
In 2018, as in 2005, housing-price growth began slowing, with significant price drops occurring in some major markets. Look at Manhattan where home prices are in a “near free-fall.”
Counterpoint
The only major market showing true depreciation is Seattle, and it looks like home values in that city are about to reverse and start appreciating again. CoreLogic is projecting home price appreciation to reaccelerate across the country over the next twelve months.
Regarding Manhattan, home prices are dropping because the city’s new “mansion tax” is sapping demand. Additionally, the new federal tax code that went into effect last year continues to impact the market, capping deductions for state and local taxes, known as SALT, at $10,000. That had the effect of making it more expensive to own homes in states like New York.
SUPPOSITION #3
Prices will crash because that is what happened during the last recession.
Counterpoint
It is true that home values sank by almost 20% during the 2008 recession. However, it is also true that in the four previous recessions, home values depreciated only once (by less than 2%). In the other three, residential real estate values increased by 3.5%, 6.1%, and 6.6%.
Price is determined by supply and demand. In 2008, there was an overabundance of housing inventory (a 9-month supply). Today, housing inventory is less than half of that (a 4-month supply).
Bottom Line
We need to realize that today’s real estate market is nothing like the 2008 market. Therefore, when a recession occurs, it won’t resemble the last one.
To view original article, visit Keeping Current Matters.
Selling This Fall? You Want To Get These 4 Things Right.
Selling your house this fall is absolutely doable. Buyer activity typically starts to slow while the number of homes for sale climb – and you need the right strategy to get attention in this type of market.
Selling This Fall? You Haven’t Missed Your Window
Getting your house sold this season comes down to how well it’s priced and presented, and that’s where a local agent shines.
Thinking About Tapping into Your 401(k) To Buy a Home? Read This First.
No matter which route you take, talk with a financial expert first. The buyers who come out ahead build a solid plan with the right professionals before starting their journey to homeownership.
Most Home Sales Close – Here’s How To Keep Yours on Track
Some reasons are outside a seller’s control, like whether a buyer’s loan clears or whether they sell their own home in time. But there are a few proactive things you can do to help make sure your sale goes as smoothly as possible.
Selling a Luxury House? Here’s Why Now Is a Good Time
High-end buyers tend to feel less of the affordability pressure weighing on many households today, so they keep buying even when the wider market slows.
More Homes, Better Prices: A Buyer’s Summer
Sellers are reading market conditions and are pricing accordingly from the start rather than listing high and cutting later, and buyers are taking note and making bids.