"We’re currently in the longest economic recovery in U.S. history. That has caused some to ask experts to project when the next economic slowdown (recession) could occur."
We’re currently in the longest economic recovery in U.S. history. That has caused some to ask experts to project when the next economic slowdown (recession) could occur. Two years ago, 67% of the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) for the Economic Forecasting Survey predicted we would have a recession no later than the end of this year (2020). The same study done just three months ago showed more than one third of the economists still saw an economic slowdown right around the corner.
The news caused concern among consumers. This is evidenced by a recent survey done by realtor.com that shows 53% of home purchasers (first-time and repeat buyers) currently in the market believe a recession will occur by the end of this year.
Wait! It seems the experts are changing their minds….
Now, in an article earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed only 14.3% of those economists now believe we’re in danger of a recession occurring this year (see graph below):
The WSJ article strongly stated,
“The U.S. expansion, now in its 11th year, will continue through the 2020 presidential election with a healthy labor market backing it up, economists say.”
This optimism regarding the economy was repeated by others as well.
CNBC, quoting Goldman Sachs economists:
“Just months after almost everyone on Wall Street worried that a recession was just around the corner, Goldman Sachs said a downturn is unlikely over the next several years. In fact, the firm’s economists stopped just short of saying that the U.S. economy is recession-proof.”
“When Barron’s gathers some of Wall Street’s best minds—as we do every January for our annual Roundtable—we expect some consensus, some disagreement…But the 10 veteran investors and economists who convened in New York on Jan. 6 at the Barron’s offices agree that there’s almost no chance of a recession this year.”
“The U.S. economy is heading into 2020 at a pace of steady, sustained growth after a series of interest rate cuts and the apparent resolution of two trade-related threats mostly eliminated the risk of a recession.”
Robert A. Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank:
“I expect that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in 2020.”
Bottom Line
There probably won’t be a recession this year. That’s good news for you, whether you’re looking to buy or sell a home.
To view original article, visit Keeping Current Matters.
The “Take It or Leave It” Attitude Is Fading from the Market – What That Means for You
That’s why whether you’re buying or selling today, there are two terms you’ll hear a lot: concession and incentive.
What Buying or Selling a Home Gives Back to Your Community
Want to know what a move would mean where you live? A local agent can show you the figure close to home.
The 1 Factor That Explains Everything Happening with Home Prices Right Now
The national average of 1.7% price growth is accurate, but it’s an average of two very different stories happening at the same time – the few areas experiencing mild declines and the overwhelming majority that are still seeing prices rise.
That House That’s Been Sitting Could Be Your Best Shot at a Deal
A local agent has the context to tell which homes are the real opportunities and which are skippable.
Could Moving a Bit Further Out Change Everything About Your Budget?
Every market has more affordable pockets that most buyers never think to explore. A great local real estate agent knows exactly where those places are.
What Rising Inflation Means for Your Move
Here’s what’s actually going on, why it matters for the housing market, and what it means if you’re thinking about buying or selling.