The ‘REAL’ News about Housing Affordability
Some industry experts are claiming that the housing market may be headed for a slowdown as we proceed through 2017, based on rising home prices and a potential jump in mortgage interest rates. One of the data points they use is the Housing Affordability Index, as reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Here is how NAR defines the index:
“The Housing Affordability Index measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home at the national level based on the most recent price and income data.”
Basically, a value of 100 means a family earning the median income earns enough to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home, based on the price and mortgage interest rates at the time. Anything above 100 means the family has more than enough to qualify.
The higher the index, the easier it is to afford a home.
Why the concern?
The index has been declining over the last several years as home values increased. Some are concerned that too many buyers could be priced out of the market.
But, wait a minute…
Though the index skyrocketed from 2009 through 2013, we must realize that during that time, the housing crisis left the market with an overabundance of distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales). All prices dropped dramatically and distressed properties sold at major discounts. Then, mortgage rates fell like a rock.
The market is recovering, and values are coming back nicely. That has caused the index to fall.
However, let’s remove the crisis years (shaded in gray) and look at the current index as compared to the index from 1990 – 2008:
Though prices and rates appear to be increasing, we must realize that affordability is composed of three ingredients: home prices, interest rates, and income. And, incomes are finally rising.
ATTOM Data Solutions recently released their Q1 2017 U.S. Home Affordability Index. The report explained:
“Stronger wage growth is the silver lining in this report, outpacing home price growth in more than half of the markets for the first time since Q1 2012, when median home prices were still falling nationwide. If that pattern continues, it will help turn the tide in the eroding home affordability trend.”
Bottom Line
Compared to historic norms, it is still a great time to buy from an affordability standpoint.
Why Median Home Sales Price Is Confusing Right Now
Median home sales prices change because there’s a mix of homes being sold is being impacted by affordability and mortgage rates.
People Want Less Expensive Homes – And Builders Are Responding
Builders producing smaller, less expensive newly built homes give you more affordable options at a time when that’s really needed.
Don’t Expect a Flood of Foreclosures
Before there can be a significant rise in foreclosures, the number of people who can’t pay their mortgage would need to rise. Since buyers are making their payments today, a wave of foreclosures isn’t likely.
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If you’re thinking of moving, you may be considering the inventory and affordability challenges in the housing market and how to offset these.
There’s Only Half the Inventory of a Normal Housing Market Today
If you want to list your house, know that there’s only about half the inventory there’d usually be in a more normal year.
Four Ways You Can Use Your Home Equity
Understanding how home equity works, and how to leverage it, is important for any homeowner.
Sellers: Don’t Let These Two Things Hold You Back
If fear you won’t be able to find your next home is the primary thing holding you back, remember to consider all your options.
Pricing Your House Right Still Matters Today
Pricing your house fairly based on market conditions increases the chance you’ll have more buyers who are interested in purchasing it.
Homebuyers Are Still More Active Than Usual
Buyer demand hasn’t disappeared, and in many places remains strong largely due to the shortage of homes on the market.
Don’t Fall for the Next Shocking Headlines About Home Prices
In the coming months, you’re going to see even more headlines that either get what’s happening with home prices wrong or are misleading.